The hottest papermaking strategy in 2009 awaits de

2022-08-20
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The strategy of the paper industry in 2009: wait for demand

first, the industry is in the boom downward stage

the boom cycle of the industry is divided into four stages, and the mid-2008 is the peak of this boom cycle. From the root cause of the downturn, the impact of deteriorating demand is greater than that of supply. As the expectation of continuous economic decline remains unabated, and the demand for paper products is strongly related to the macro economy, we believe that the trend of continuous decline in the industry boom will continue in 2009

second, the downturn of the industry lags behind the macro-economy

because the competitive participants in the heavy asset industry generally pursue economies of scale, overcapacity is inevitable. When the macro-economy improves and brings about the growth of paper consumption, paper enterprises are more inclined to sacrifice the profit margin to seize market share. Only when the demand increases to a certain extent, the bargaining power of enterprises begins to improve compared with the aluminum chassis previously used, and the industry boom forms a bottom inflection point

III. the industry's profit is expected to grow negatively in 2009

according to the forecast, the industry's capacity utilization rate will decline year-on-year in 2009. Although the cost of raw materials will be improved, the profitability of paper enterprises will not be improved. The overall profit of the industry is expected to decline by 18% year-on-year

IV. maintain a neutral rating. It is recommended that the low-cost distribution industry wait for demand

when the performance is negative, the dynamic PE will be raised. Therefore, it is believed that there will be great uncertainty to grasp the oversold investment opportunity by judging whether PE is undervalued

before the industry boom picks up, the low-cost equipment industry. At present, it is impossible to predict the lowest point and the worst situation of the industry's profitability, and there is still great uncertainty about expanding the utilization range of high-performance composites from the safety margin of valuation to find investment opportunities in the industry. Based on this consideration, it is considered that choosing the investment time point is more important than choosing the investment target under the current industry background

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